First results are in! The results are in for Round 0 Surveys… We had good participation, with 226 participants providing us answers to 12 surveys. Keep it up! Although we won’t show the survey estimates just yet, they were similar to the market estimates — a good sign. Because the markets will take nearly a…
Round 0 Update Round 0 of Replication Markets closed on Sunday evening here on US East Coast. Between the surveys and the markets, the RM team has a lot of data about meta-claims to sort through. We are calculating winners of Round 0 Surveys. Look for that announcement next week! A bit of data for…
If you’re used to financial markets, you may wonder where the “Buy” and “Sell” buttons are. Most markets focus on buying and selling, and determine the price (probability) under the hood. We use the same formula, but focus on the probability (price), determining shares under the hood. To the right of the image below, you…
Opening Day We had an exciting day at RM HQ as we marked the official opening of Replication Markets on August 12. When the Round 0 Surveys went live, our forecasters began answering questions about the replicability of studies in the last ten years and across disciplines in the social and behavioral sciences. Round 0…
In a number of past research projects, we have used prediction markets to elicit information on the replicability of research studies. In these markets, participants traded contracts with payoffs tied to the outcome of replications in large-scale replication projects, and thereby created forecasts – similar to bettors in sports betting markets who create forecasts by…
If you’ve just read What is a high-quality replication, you know that our replications will be high-power — usually much higher than the original study — but not quite the “100 replications” ideal set out by DARPA: Assume 100 replications of this study were performed, and a weighted average of their results (i.e., a meta-analysis) was…
Replication Markets is a game that is part crowd-sourcing, part playing a market, and part legal gambling. The bets are placed on research results: can a study be replicated?
From the replication crisis to forecasting to prediction markets, the Replication Markets project covers a broad range of intellectual territory. Explore our recommended reading to learn more.
