We had an exciting day at RM HQ as we marked the official opening of Replication Markets on August 12.
When the Round 0 Surveys went live, our forecasters began answering questions about the replicability of studies in the last ten years and across disciplines in the social and behavioral sciences.
Round 0 Markets will open August 19 at 12:00 UTC (8am EST).
Registered forecasters had the chance to bid on a whimsical practice claim: “What value will this question have when it closes?”
The crowd coordinated to a final answer of about 50%…at closing time the value was 53%.
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More forecasters results in better forecasting. Can you think of a colleague, friend, or student who might be interested in participating? Please share our website and social media channels with your communities.
Both under-confidence and over-confidence are problems.
A highly over-confident forecast (e.g. 1% or 99%) can hurt your accuracy the most.
But if you think “I have no idea, I’ll just put 50%” then you probably aren’t taking advantage of things you actually already know.
Consider what you do know, and adjust your forecast a bit up or down…maybe to 55%, or to 45%.
Small distinctions are what make you more accurate than another forecaster…and more likely to earn money for forecasts.