First results are in!
The results are in for Round 0 Surveys… We had good participation, with 226 participants providing us answers to 12 surveys. Keep it up!
Although we won’t show the survey estimates just yet, they were similar to the market estimates — a good sign. Because the markets will take nearly a year pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to the forecasters that are closest to the truth, as determined by a peer prediction method.
For example, if we took the simple average as the best estimate of truth, we would give highest scores to those closest to the average. (In the famous case of Galton’s ox, that average was very good indeed!) Our calculations are a little fancier, but the same principle. Our calculation methods are pre-registered with the Center for Open Science and will be made public at the end of the study.
Survey prizes are awarded based on those scores. In Round 0, we award prizes to the Top 24. Prizes will be awarded to the following forecasters, pending verification of eligibility.
Our top six forecasters earned $80 each.
These forecasters earned $40 each.
These forecasters earned $20 each.
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