In this round of Markets… We continue to examine the 330 claims from the 22 journals of Round 9’s surveys. For a complete list, see our blog post. Timeline for Round 9 Prediction markets will be available from Monday, July 6, 12:00 UTC until Monday, July 20, 06:00 UTC (that’s 2am Monday US EDT). Trading…
Replication Markets Round 6 finished April 27 after a long pause between the Surveys and the Markets. Now that the Markets have closed, we can announce the most accurate forecasters for the Surveys. We have 29 winners! Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to…
SCORE’s change in definition of “replication” (see our blog post on this topic) more than doubled the number of claims that will resolve in Round 6 and later. This has affected our project’s budget. We have adjusted market payouts as described below. However, a change to incentives has to be approved by our Institutional Review…
We have big changes to announce! Read to learn about… simpler definition of replication more markets paying out simpler surveys Simpler Definition of Replication SCORE has adopted a simpler, unified definition of replication: Replication is testing the same claims using data that was not used in the original study. That required some changes from us.…
The awards reported below are INCORRECT, due to a processing error. The correct values are reported here. Replication Markets Round 5 finished on January 26, and since then we have been analyzing the results to determine the most accurate forecasters for the Surveys. We have 37 winners! Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay…
Welcome to Round 5 Markets! In this round of Markets, we continue to examine the claims from the 19 journals of Round 5’s surveys. For a complete list, see our blog post. Timeline for Round 5 Prediction markets will be available from Monday, January 13, 12:00 UTC until Sunday, January 26, 23:59 UTC. Trading is…
The results are in! Replication Markets Round 4 finished on December 22, and since then we have been analyzing the results to determine the most accurate forecasters for the Surveys. We have 28 winners! Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to…
Happy new year! Welcome to Round 5! Prediction surveys and prediction markets have different advantages. We open each round with surveys to get your baseline opinion before interaction in the markets influence your evaluation. If you completed your demographics survey, your claim surveys are live! Surveys let us know what you think before the markets…
The results are in! Replication Markets Round 3 finished on November 24, and since then we have been analyzing the results to determine the most accurate forecasters for the Surveys. We have 42 winners! Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to…
Welcome to Round 4 Markets! In this round of Markets, we continue to examine the claims from the 20 journals of the Survey round. For a complete list, see our blog post. Timeline for Round 4 Prediction markets will be available from Monday, December 9, 12:00 UTC until Sunday, December 22, 23:59 UTC. “Say a few…
