Round 5 Markets are open!

Welcome to Round 5 Markets!

In this round of Markets, we continue to examine the claims from the 19 journals of Round 5’s surveys.

For a complete list, see our blog post.

Timeline for Round 5

Prediction markets will be available from Monday, January 13, 12:00 UTC until Sunday, January 26, 23:59 UTC.

Trading is open for two weeks, after which the markets are frozen until the final result is known. From each round, only about 10 markets will resolve and pay out. DARPA will begin to reveal those resolved markets in mid-2020. For more details, read Explanation of Payouts.

To compete for more immediate payouts, make sure to participate in Survey weeks! Round 6 Surveys open February 3, 2020.


We have updated the definition of high quality replication. Click here and scroll down to “Actually.”

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