The awards reported below are INCORRECT, due to a processing error. The correct values are reported here.
Replication Markets Round 5 finished on January 26, and since then we have been analyzing the results to determine the most accurate forecasters for the Surveys. We have 37 winners!
Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to forecasters who are closest to the truth as determined by a peer prediction method. Our calculation methods are pre-registered with the Center for Open Science and will be made public at the end of the study.
The top 4 forecasters of each batch are awarded $80, $40, $20, and $20, respectively. Round 5 Surveys featured 30 batches of 10 surveys each. You will notice that quite a few of our winners earned more than $80. This happens when a forecaster is ranked in the top 4 in more than one batch.
Round 5 Winners will be notified by email at the email address registered with the username on the RM platform. Prizes must be claimed by March 2, 2020.
The awards reported below are INCORRECT, due to a processing error. The correct values are reported here.
| bmandl | $780 |
| cgravert | $600 |
| ekarpinski | $460 |
| CPM | $380 |
| anshul96go | $360 |
| adamlgreen | $300 |
| bjaeger | $300 |
| stanlaurel | $180 |
| JonS | $160 |
| levent | $160 |
| RobC | $100 |
| benthamite | $80 |
| prorgan | $80 |
| unipedal | $80 |
| yetAnotherTrader | $80 |
| BradleyJBaker | $60 |
| Drs3ltsam | $60 |
| Poison | $60 |
| Bucky | $40 |
| jc20 | $40 |
| mjad88 | $40 |
| physwiz | $40 |
| rm_user | $40 |
| sattuma | $40 |
| Scalene1234 | $40 |
| sflicht | $40 |
| AchinToBe | $20 |
| Frantisek | $20 |
| hugopedder | $20 |
| Ilei | $20 |
| JozefBavolar | $20 |
| martin_kosiik | $20 |
| Matho | $20 |
| Nokta | $20 |
| Pavol | $20 |
| scocciolo | $20 |
[…] Actual prizes are reported in the table below. The incorrectly reported prizes can be seen on this page. […]