Happy new year! Welcome to Round 5!

Prediction surveys and prediction markets have different advantages. We open each round with surveys to get your baseline opinion before interaction in the markets influence your evaluation. 

If you completed your demographics survey, your claim surveys are live!

Surveys let us know what you think before the markets open.

In this round, we examine claims (published 2009-2018) from the following journals:

1. British Journal of Political Science

2. Comparative Political Studies

3. Journal of Conflict Resolution

4. World Politics

5. Criminology

6. American Journal of Sociology

7. Demography

8. Social Science & Medicine

9. The Quarterly Journal of Economics

10. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

11. Journal of Business Research

12. Journal of Consumer Research

13. The Leadership Quarterly

14. Cognition

15. Evolution and Human Behavior

16. Journal of Environmental Psychology

17. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General

18. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology

19. Health Psychology

Round 5 Surveys will pay $4,800. That’s $160 per batch of surveys, as $80 / $40 / $20 / $20 for the Top 4 forecasters for the batch.

The more batches of surveys you complete, the more you are eligible to win. See our blog post about top winners in Rounds 1-4. Round 5 Survey winners will be announced after Round 5 Markets close later this month. (Markets pay separately, and not until mid-2020. For more details, read Explanation of Payouts.)

  1. Your assigned surveys will appear on your page if you are eligible to complete surveys.*
  2. To be eligible to win prize money, you must complete your first batch of assigned surveys.
  3. If you want to be eligible for more prizes, complete more batches of surveys. After you complete your first batch of surveys, another batch will appear on your page. Only complete the number of surveys that you want to complete.
*Only forecasters who have completed the required intake survey will have assigned surveys.

Timeline for Round 5

  • Round 5 Surveys are available from now, Monday, January 6, 12:00 UTC until Sunday, January 12, 23:59 UTC.
  • You may take the surveys in several sittings provided you use the same browser and keep the cookies Qualtrics uses to track your progress.
  • Round 5 Prediction Market will be available from Monday, Janaury 13, 12:00 UTC until Sunday, January 26, 23:59 UTC.