Looking for Round 3 winners? See this post!
The results are in!
Replication Markets Round 2 finished on October 27, and since then we have been analyzing the results to determine the most accurate forecasters for the Surveys. We have 37 winners!
Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to forecasters who are closest to the truth as determined by a peer prediction method. Our calculation methods are pre-registered with the Center for Open Science and will be made public at the end of the study.
The top 4 forecasters of each batch are awarded $80, $40, $20, and $20, respectively. Round 2 Surveys featured 20 batches of 9-10 surveys each. You will notice that quite a few of our winners earned more than $80. This happens when a forecaster is ranked in the top 4 in more than one batch.
Round 3 Surveys open Monday, November 4 at 12:00 UTC. How many batches can you complete? Surveys close on November 10 at 23:59 UTC.
Round 2 Winners will be notified by email at the email address registered with the username on predict.replicationmarkets.com. Prizes must be claimed by November 24, 2019.
Reminder: Forecasters listed in red need to submit their prize claims (as of November 14).
| EirikStroemland | $380 |
| Frantisek | $320 |
| BradleyJBaker | $300 |
| adamlgreen | $300 |
| unipedal | $220 |
| jacobjacob | $140 |
| AchinToBe | $140 |
| xoph09 | $120 |
| relihan | $80 |
| Feng | $80 |
| rm_user | $80 |
| bgfarrar | $80 |
| Econ101 | $80 |
| martin_kosiik | $80 |
| prorgan | $80 |
| benthamite | $80 |
| yetAnotherTrader | $40 |
| bjaeger | $40 |
| ted | $40 |
| mVranka | $40 |
| Matti Heino | $40 |
| Lenkafiala | $40 |
| sattuma | $40 |
| ksiler | $40 |
| mjad88 | $40 |
| sflicht | $40 |
| Adelia | $40 |
| Reviewer3 | $20 |
| Luthor113 | $20 |
| meaning.mosaic.curtain | $20 |
| zultan | $20 |
| philip_p | $20 |
| bmandl | $20 |
| felixbunny | $20 |
| eloiserosen | $20 |
| davidchester | $20 |
| acct | $20 |
Fewer overall winners than Round 1, but also a flatter distribution, suggesting more people putting in effort towards the top. Perhaps the competitive crowd was drawn by adamlgreen’s epic Round 1 winnings.