No surveys, no markets…it may look like a quiet week at Replication Markets, but there’s  a lot happening behind the scenes at RM HQ.

Preview of claim icons

We are preparing 300 new claims from 18 journals, including at least one that “successfully” hit mainstream media. (That’s the only clue we can give you until opening day.) 

We continue to work on our market interface. Send your comments our way: what do you love and what needs improvement?

The RM project is structured in Rounds of Surveys followed by Markets. Round 3 Surveys open November 4, 12:00 UTC.

Each round features about 300 claims published in various behavioral and social science journals during 2009-2018.

During a Survey week, forecasters provide their individual assessments of the replication potential of that round’s claims. These responses establish the baseline for the crowdsourced opinion.

During a round’s Market weeks, forecasters collectively decide on the replication probability of the same claims considered during Survey week. We then compare the market results to the survey results.