Round 3 Surveys open

Welcome to Round 3!

We begin each Round with a week of surveys. The combined individual assessments of our forecasters sets the baseline for the crowdsourced opinion in the Markets. It’s an important part of the RM process! That’s why we award money for accurate insights in Survey rounds.

In this round, we examine claims (published 2009-2018) from the following journals:

1. American Educational Research Journal

2. American Journal of Political Science

3. American Political science Review

4. American Sociological Review

5. Criminology

6. European Journal of Personality

7. Exceptional Children

8. Experimental Economics

9. Journal of Applied Psychology

10. Journal of Business Research

11. Journal of environmental Psychology

12. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General

13. Journal of Marketing

14. Journal of Marketing Research

15. Journal of Marriage and Family

16. Law and Human Behavior

17. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

18. World Politics

For this survey round, we expect to payout $4,800 after Round 3 Markets close. That breaks down to $160 per batch of surveys, as $80 / $40 / $20 / $20 for the Top 4 forecasters for the batch.

The more batches of surveys you complete, the more you are eligible to win. Round 3 has 30 batches of 9-10 claims in each.

(Markets will pay more, but you have to wait for ground truth in mid-2020.) For more details, read Explanation of Payouts.

  1. Your assigned surveys will appear on your page if you are eligible to complete surveys.*
  2. To be eligible to win prize money, you must complete your first batch of assigned surveys.
  3. If you want to be eligible for more prizes, complete more batches of surveys. After you complete your first batch of surveys, another batch will appear on your page. Only complete the number of surveys that you want to complete.
*Only forecasters who completed the required intake survey by 23:59 UTC on October 31, 2019 are eligible to participate in a Survey round.

Timeline for Round 3

  • Round 3 Surveys are available from now, Monday, November 4, 12:00 UTC until Sunday, November 10, 23:59 UTC.
  • You may take the surveys in several sittings provided you use the same browser and keep the cookies Qualtrics uses to track your progress.
  • Round 3 Prediction Market will be available from Monday, November 11, 12:00 UTC until Sunday, November 24, 23:59 UTC.

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