The use of p-values and hypothesis testing is ubiquitous across science. Everyone remembers the rules they learnt in their first statistics courses; 0.05 is the magic cut-off for statistical significance. Statistical evidence with p-values below 0.05 are accepted – models with p-values higher than this threshold are discarded. However, this statistical practice has come…
The social and behavioral sciences, some say, have a “replication crisis.” When researchers attempt to reproduce results of published papers, sometimes the original conclusions do not hold up. Replication studies are conducted using the same methods and standards laid out in the published paper. They use new participants and often a larger sample size. Researchers…
In a number of past research projects, we have used prediction markets to elicit information on the replicability of research studies. In these markets, participants traded contracts with payoffs tied to the outcome of replications in large-scale replication projects, and thereby created forecasts – similar to bettors in sports betting markets who create forecasts by…
Replication Markets is a government funded research project to forecast the outcomes of thousands of potential social science replications to be done from mid-2019 to mid-2020.
Replication Markets is a game that is part crowd-sourcing, part playing a market, and part legal gambling. The bets are placed on research results: can a study be replicated?
From the replication crisis to forecasting to prediction markets, the Replication Markets project covers a broad range of intellectual territory. Explore our recommended reading to learn more.
