Schedule – Replication Markets

Calendar of Rounds: Survey and Market Schedule

Round 6
February

Round 7
May

Round 8
June

Round 9
July

Round 10
August

Round 11
Covid 19

Round 6
February

Round 7
May

Round 8
June

Round 9
July

Round 10
August

Round 11
Covid 19

Round 1
September

Round 2
October

Round 3
November

Round 4
December

Round 5
January

Round 1
September

Round 2
October

Round 3
November

Round 4
December

Round 5
January

The RM project is structured in Rounds of Surveys followed by Markets. Each round features claims published in various behavioral and social science journals during 2009-2018.

During a Round’s Survey week, forecasters provide their individual assessments of the replication potential of that round’s claims. These responses establish the baseline for the crowdsourced opinion.

During a Round’s Market weeks, forecasters collectively decide on the replication probability of the same claims considered during Survey week. We then compare the market results to the survey results.

Survey responses inform the data we collect from the markets. For our research purposes, we need forecasters to use both methods. As an incentive to complete surveys, we offer $4800 to be distributed among top forecasters of each round of Surveys.

Specifically during a Survey week,

claims are split into batches of 9-10 claims each.
each batch will award $80 to the top forecaster, $40 to the second place forecaster, and $20 each to third and fourth place.
the more batches you complete, the more money you are eligible to win.

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