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Surveys open February 3, 12:00 UTC
Surveys close February 9, 23:59 UTC
Markets open April 13, 2020, 12:00 UTC
Markets close April 27, 2020, 06:00 UTC
Surveys open May 4, 12:00 UTC
Surveys close May 11, 06:00 UTC
Markets open May 11, 12:00 UTC
Markets close May 25, 06:00 UTC
Surveys open June 1, 12:00 UTC
Surveys close June 8, 06:00 UTC
Markets open June 8, 12:00 UTC
Markets close June 22: 06:00 UTC
Surveys open June 29, 12:00 UTC
Surveys close July 6, 06:00 UTC
Markets open July 6, 12:00 UTC
Markets close July 20 06:00 UTC
Surveys open July 27, 12:00 UTC
Surveys close August 3, 06:00 UTC
Markets open August 3, 12:00 UTC
Markets close August 17, 06:00 UTC
Surveys open August 24, 12:00 UTC
Surveys close August 31, 06:00 UTC
Markets open August 31, 12:00 UTC
Markets close September 28, 06:00 UTC
Surveys open September 9, 12:00 UTC
Surveys close September 15, 23:59 UTC
Markets open September 16, 12:00 UTC
Markets close September 29, 23:59 UTC
Surveys open October 7, 12:00 UTC
Surveys close October 13, 23:59 UTC
Markets open October 14, 12:00 UTC
Markets close October 27, 23:59 UTC
Surveys open November 4, 12:00 UTC
Surveys close November 10, 23:59 UTC
Markets open November 11, 12:00 UTC
Markets close November 24, 23:59 UTC
Surveys open December 2, 12:00 UTC
Surveys close December 8, 23:59 UTC
Markets open December 9, 12:00 UTC
Markets close December 22, 23:59 UTC
Surveys open January 6, 12:00 UTC
Surveys close January 12, 23:59 UTC
Markets open January 13, 12:00 UTC
Markets close January 26, 23:59 UTC
The RM project is structured in Rounds of Surveys followed by Markets. Each round features claims published in various behavioral and social science journals during 2009-2018.
During a Round’s Survey week, forecasters provide their individual assessments of the replication potential of that round’s claims. These responses establish the baseline for the crowdsourced opinion.
During a Round’s Market weeks, forecasters collectively decide on the replication probability of the same claims considered during Survey week. We then compare the market results to the survey results.
Survey responses inform the data we collect from the markets. For our research purposes, we need forecasters to use both methods. As an incentive to complete surveys, we offer $4800 to be distributed among top forecasters of each round of Surveys.
Specifically during a Survey week,
Note: We cannot re-use participant lists for new recruiting. Please opt-in (above) for occasional announcements about related future studies.
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