Nearly Sure-Thing Markets

Preprint Forecasters: Hey! We know you’re busy, but did you know dozens of you are leaving free prizes on the table?

So… our oversight, there are 100 nearly sure-thing markets because these preprints have already been published! But because only 15-30 people have been active, the publication markets for about 80 of these still give more than a 10% chance of “No publication”.

If you do nothing else, fixing those will (a) give you a share of the prizes, and (b) improve the accuracy of the whole market.

Stop by today and correct the markets!

Strategy

OK, you’re short on time and new to markets. Here’s an easy strategy (not optimal, but okay):

  • Select “No Publication” questions.
  • Sort by “Min Uncertainty”
  • Skip the ones already under 5%
  • Then compare the rest to the Published Preprints list.
  • Use “Quick Trade” to move the forecast to under 5%
  • Continue

After that:

  • If you have points and time remaining, pick one ignored preprint and give it some attention. Sort by “Min Trades” or maybe by “Max Uncertainty”.
  • Alternatively, look for topics or preprints you know, and fix markets that seem wrong to you, regardless how certain they are.
  • November 19, 2020

Charles Twardy

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This research is supported (in part) by the Fetzer Franklin Fund of the John E. Fetzer Memorial Trust. It uses a platform developed for DARPA SCORE, and some staff are supported by SCORE while working on this. We are grateful for their support.