Markets relaunch and things to know


To spur activity in the Markets, every Forecaster will be awarded 3200 additional points on Monday,  November 16. 

  • 1600 points at 18:00 UTC (1:00 pm US EST) and another
  • 1600 points at 22:00 UTC (5:00 pm US EST)

RM is extended the closing time by a day. Markets will end Friday, November 20 at 17:00 UTC (12:00 US EST). 


Good news! The markets reopened today (11/12) around 12:00 UTC.

Better news – you should have exactly as many points as you did before!

We restarted the market last night and re-played all the trades. It stayed coherent and robust throughout. We’ve been unable to break it in this morning’s testing, so we think we’ve removed the gremlins.  There was an issue in the original question linking, but for some reason, only on the production site.   :-s

Things to know:

  • History is a lie.  The probability history for publication questions no longer matches their current value. The first trade on each question will fix that going forward.

    • This has no real effect except to look confusing if you trace things out.

    • Except if you have a bot that uses botutils.get_latest_prob() — that latest prob may be incorrect until the question is re-traded.

  • Your contracts are secure. If you had traded 20% -> 40%, that would have cost 229 points to gain 100 if true.  Therefore we deducted 229 from your Available points.  That cost/gain remains, so your Available points should be the same as before.

  • Your old Pub trades may look different: in this case, you still traded to 40%, but the starting point may have been different. That’s why we only charge what you previously agreed to pay, not what would have been the case in the corrected world.

We’ll monitor reddit and twitter and email through the day – please feel free to ask any questions.

You can also send questions and comments to

Thanks again for your patience!


Charles Twardy

There is NO COST to participate in Replication Markets.

This research is supported (in part) by the Fetzer Franklin Fund of the John E. Fetzer Memorial Trust. It uses a platform developed for DARPA SCORE, and some staff are supported by SCORE while working on this. We are grateful for their support.