This is a follow-up to Multi-choice “Publication” Markets.
This extended example is just to give you a better feel for linked multi-choice questions. It’s probably a bad idea to forecast like this because:
That said, let’s go. Here’s a preprint with the three Publication claims – High / Low / No – starting at ~33% each.
Without even looking at the claim, I decide they should be 10% / 40% / 50%.
Using Quick Forecast for speed:
That will drop the others to 21% each. (Wait a few seconds for the refresh.)
Not perfect, but this time it’s good enough.
The end result is I have the following shares (use Forecast or Quick Forecast to see):
High: 77 “No” shares.
Low: 129 “Yes” shares
No: 163 “Yes” shares.
There is NO COST to participate in Replication Markets.
This research is supported (in part) by the Fetzer Franklin Fund of the John E. Fetzer Memorial Trust. It uses a platform developed for DARPA SCORE, and some staff are supported by SCORE while working on this. We are grateful for their support.