Replication Markets COVID-19 Preprints markets closed today, November 20, and we are pleased to announce the winners of the survey predictions.
The top 4 forecasters of each batch are awarded $30, $25, $20, and $15, respectively. There were 40 batches of 10 surveys each. You will notice quite a few of our winners earned more than $30. This happens when a forecaster is ranked in the top 4 in more than one batch.
Survey winners will be notified by email at the email address registered with the username on RM’s platform. Prizes must be claimed by December 20, 2020.
Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we calculate survey prizes based on who is closest to the “truth” as determined by the SSR peer prediction method. Our calculations are similar to what we used in DARPA SCORE, and will be made available at the end of the study.
There is NO COST to participate in Replication Markets.
This research is supported (in part) by the Fetzer Franklin Fund of the John E. Fetzer Memorial Trust. It uses a platform developed for DARPA SCORE, and some staff are supported by SCORE while working on this. We are grateful for their support.