Jan 30 2020
9

Changes in Round 6

By Charles Twardy

We have big changes to announce!  Read to learn about… simpler definition of replication more markets paying out simpler surveys Simpler Definition of Replication SCORE has adopted a simpler, unified definition of replication: Replication is testing the same claims using data that was not used in the original study. That required some changes from us.…

Jan 02 2020
4

Robustness of Monthly Prizes

By Juntao Wang

Evidence from the first four rounds tl;dr: In our monthly surveys, high participation does not necessarily lead to high prizes – some highly active forecasters earned $0 – suggesting our surrogate score is robust to participation bias. Background The monthly survey prizes are risky.  Unlike markets that pay for ground truth (eventually, and for only…