About Replication Markets


We are embarking on an ambitious project to estimate the reliability of research in the social and behavioral sciences.

Replication Markets is one part of the larger DARPA SCORE program to assign confidence scores to social & behavioral science claims. (See also this Wired Article.)

We will review 3,000 research claims from 62 respected journals in the social and behavioral sciences. For each, we will estimate the chance a high-quality replication would find the same result. An independent team will test about 5% of these claims, and another will score our forecasts.

Our project will deliver deep insights into the social and behavioral sciences.

These insights include:

  • What is the overall replication rate?
  • How does the replication rate vary by
    • field/discipline
    • research design
    • publication practices
    • definition of replication
  • What types of research claims are being made?
  • What types of research can be replicated, and at what cost?

Our project aims for more than 80% accuracy.

Our past markets have averaged ~75% accuracy, and the work is listed at the Science Prediction Market Project page, and published in Science, PNAS, and Royal Society Open Science.  (We are also trying to improve our Brier Score and AUC).

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