In November of 2020, Replication Markets ran a prediction market for 400 preprints related to COVID-19.
Categories included Epidemiology, Infectious Diseases, Immunology, Microbiology, and Public and Global Health.
Participants had the opportunity to bid on four questions for each of the 400 preprints:
- Citation ranking of the preprint one year from the preprint publication date.
- Chance that the preprint would be published in a high impact factor (JIF ≥10) journal within a year of preprint publication.
- Chance that the preprint would be published in a low impact factor journal (JIF <10) within a year of preprint publication.
- Chance that the preprint would not be published within a year of preprint publication.
Now that we are in 2022, all of the questions have resolved. Our team has preliminary results to share before we make our final prize calculations.
Please review the resolutions for accuracy.
If you have information supporting other results for publication status or journal impact factor, please contact us right away at
Notes on the resolutions:
- There are 399 resolutions instead of 400. This is because one preprint was included twice in the study under two unique DOIs.
- Journal impact factor is High for values greater than or equal to 10, and Low for values less than 10.
- Citation counts were calculated with Google Scholar citation counts including preprints and published versions.
- Citation ranks are real values in the range 1-100, with higher values corresponding to higher citation counts.