Review In late 2020 we asked forecasters to predict the fate of 400 popular COVID-19 preprints posted to bioRxiv and medRxiv between January and September of that year. For each we asked: Would it be published within a year of posting, and if so, would it be in a high-impact (JIF≥10) journal? [No / High / Low]…
In November of 2020, Replication Markets ran a prediction market for 400 preprints related to COVID-19. Categories included Epidemiology, Infectious Diseases, Immunology, Microbiology, and Public and Global Health. Participants had the opportunity to bid on four questions for each of the 400 preprints: Citation ranking of the preprint one year from the preprint publication date.…
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