SCORE Markets (Rounds 1-10, plus 0 & 11):
I waited as long as possible to maximize the number of completed replications, but we now have about two months to resolve claims, pay prizes, and wrap up. There are now max 88 qualifying claims: better than in February, but less than we would like. It is what it is.
We expect to finalize calculations within 2 weeks, send notifications, and provide the usual 30 days for prize collection.
Normally we would post all resolutions publicly, and we will for Rounds 0 (meta-questions) and 11 (100 COVID replications). However, Rounds 1-10 are embargoed until SCORE Phase 2 ends (likely mid-2022). We will notify individual forecasters of _your_ results, with the obligation to observe the embargo (details TBD).
COVID Preprint Markets (400 Preprints):
These all resolved 1-SEP and we are nearly done calculating and checking prizes. It’s possibly we’ll pay these right after the SCORE claims because of the hard deadline for SCORE.
Follow us:
We’ll post updates on Reddit & Twitter as we go.
- Reddit: r/replicationmarkets,
- Twitter: @ReplicationMkts,
- and the RM site
- Email us anytime at: support@replicationmarkets.com. (Failing that, Charles.Twardy@jacobs.com.)
- Follow our research team at The Science Prediction Market Project.
