Round 11 featuring COVID-19

The Basics

RM will present 100 claims featuring the topic of COVID-19 from the following social and behavioral sciences: 

• Economics
• Epidemiology
• Political Science
• Psychology
• Public Administration
• Sociology

These claims were selected by the Center for Open Science using three preprint services:

• medRxiv, the preprint server for health sciences
• PsyArXiv, a preprint service for psychological sciences
• SocArXiv, a preprint service for the social sciences

Additionally, RM will continue to offer scite_ “an award-winning platform for discovering and evaluating scientific articles via Smart Citations” to assist you in evaluating claims – though their preprint coverage may be uneven.

 

The Calendar

RM Surveys will run for one (1) week.

• Monday, August 24 – Monday, August 31

RM Markets will run for four (4) weeks to allow you to update your trades in response to relevant news and new results.

• Monday, August 31  – Monday, September 28

Resolution and Payout

Surveys – RM anticipates Surveys will be resolved within a month after the closing. There will be 10 batches of the usual $160 per batch: $80, $40, $20, $20 for the top four (4) Forecasters per batch.

Markets – RM anticipates Markets to resolve by the end of the year with 20% – 50% of the claims being tested. As with Rounds 6-10, the market prize pool will be $750 per resolved claim, divided proportional to total winning shares in the Round.

Please refer to the Rules for additional information.

Participation

RM is always looking for sustaining and new Citizen Scientists to join us as a Forecaster. As Kathy Peach, head of Collective Intelligence at Nesta UK, said,

“If you take a collective view by bringing together and combining the predictions of lots of different people you get to a more accurate result because they all hold different pieces of information that help to build a more complete picture overall. By combining those individual forecasts you’re also cancelling out, perhaps, some of the biases or inaccuracies that might exist in one individual forecast alone.”

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190822-the-skills-you-need-to-predict-the-future

To start your adventure as an RM Forecaster, please go to https://replicationmarkets.com.

And Finally…

Our first Replications Markets paper was published a couple of weeks ago by the Royal Society Open Science! “Are replication rates the same across academic fields? Community forecasts from the DARPA SCORE programme”

#COVID-19 #OpenScience #forecasting #DARPA #royalsociety #KathyPeach #Jacobs #replications #scite_  #economics #epidemeology #politicalscience #psychology #publicadministration #sociology