In this round of Markets...

R10 Markets pieces

We continue to examine the 304 claims from the 31 journals of Round 10’s surveys. 

For a complete list, see our blog post.

Timeline for Round 10

Prediction markets will be available from Monday, August 3, 12:00 UTC until Monday, August 17, 06:00 UTC (that’s 2am Monday US EDT).

Trading is open for two weeks, after which the markets are frozen until the final result is known. From Rounds 6-10, about 25 markets per round will resolve and pay out. DARPA will begin to reveal those resolved markets in mid-2020. For more details, read Explanation of Payouts.

Bonus Round 11: Covid19 research

We are pleased to announce the approval of a bonus round for Replication Markets: forecasters will have the opportunity to assess research on Covid19 in the social and behavioral sciences.

To participate in Round 11, forecasters must opt in to a research participation agreement. Forecasters will see this at log in sometime after Round 10 end.

As in previous rounds, Round 11 will feature surveys, markets, and prizes.

Round 11 Surveys will be available August 24 – 31. Round 11 Markets will open on August 31, with the closing date to be determined. Details on prizes will be provided prior to Round 11 Survey opening.