Replication Markets Round 9 finished July 20. The research team analyzed the data and is happy to announce 23 winners.
Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to forecasters who are closest to the truth as determined by a peer prediction method. Our calculation methods are pre-registered with the Center for Open Science and will be made public at the end of the study.
The top 4 forecasters of each batch are awarded $80, $40, $20, and $20, respectively. Round 9 Surveys featured 33 batches of 10 surveys each. You will notice that quite a few of our winners earned more than $80. This happens when a forecaster is ranked in the top 4 in more than one batch.
Round 9 Winners will be notified by email at the email address registered with the username on the RM platform. Prizes must be claimed by August 21, 2020.
| rm_user | $1,100 |
| Botilicious | $680 |
| braoi | $660 |
| CPM | $440 |
| unipedal | $440 |
| Pavol | $220 |
| relihan | $200 |
| Frantisek | $200 |
| Nokta | $200 |
| Hmassz | $160 |
| Poison | $140 |
| AchinToBe | $140 |
| jc20 | $120 |
| stanlaurel | $100 |
| educatedguess | $80 |
| mVranka | $80 |
| yetAnotherTrader | $80 |
| sattuma | $80 |
| Ilei | $60 |
| Scalene1234 | $40 |
| DMS | $20 |
| philip_p | $20 |
| DavidRhysBernard | $20 |
