Welcome to Round 4!

Prediction surveys and prediction markets have different advantages. We open each round with surveys to get your baseline opinion before interaction in the markets influence your evaluation. 

If you completed your demographics survey, your claim surveys are live!

Surveys let us know what you think before the markets open.

In this round, we examine claims (published 2009-2018) from the following journals:

1. American Education Research Journal

2. American Journal of Political Science

3. American Journal of Sociology

4. American Political Science Review

5. American Sociological Review

6. British Journal of Political Science

7. Cognition

8. Criminology

9. European Journal of Personality

10. Journal of Applied Psychology

11. Journal of Business Research

12. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology

13. Journal of Consumer Research

14. Journal of Environmental Psychology

15. Journal of Marketing Research

16. Journal of Marriage and Family

17. Law and Human Behavior

18. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

19. The Quarterly Journal of Economics

20. World Politics

For this survey round, we expect to payout $4,800 after Round 4 Markets close. That breaks down to $160 per batch of surveys, as $80 / $40 / $20 / $20 for the Top 4 forecasters for the batch.

The more batches of surveys you complete, the more you are eligible to win. Round 4 has 30 batches of 10 claims in each.

(Markets will pay more, but you have to wait for ground truth in mid-2020.) For more details, read Explanation of Payouts.

  1. Your assigned surveys will appear on your page if you are eligible to complete surveys.*
  2. To be eligible to win prize money, you must complete your first batch of assigned surveys.
  3. If you want to be eligible for more prizes, complete more batches of surveys. After you complete your first batch of surveys, another batch will appear on your page. Only complete the number of surveys that you want to complete.
*Only forecasters who have completed the required intake survey will have assigned surveys.

Timeline for Round 4

  • Round 4 Surveys are available from now, Monday, December 2, 12:00 UTC until Sunday, December 8, 23:59 UTC.
  • You may take the surveys in several sittings provided you use the same browser and keep the cookies Qualtrics uses to track your progress.
  • Round 4 Prediction Market will be available from Monday, December 9, 12:00 UTC until Sunday, December 22, 23:59 UTC.