The results are in!
Replication Markets Round 1 finished on September 29, and since then we have been analyzing the results to determine the most accurate forecasters for the Surveys. We have 78 winners! October 31 update: forecasters listed in red below have not yet claimed their prize!
Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to forecasters who are closest to the truth as determined by a peer prediction method. Our calculation methods are pre-registered with the Center for Open Science and will be made public at the end of the study.
The top 4 forecasters of each batch are awarded $80, $40, $20, and $20, respectively. Round 1 Surveys featured 30 batches of 9-10 surveys each. You will notice that quite a few of our winners earned more than $80 — and in one case a lot more. This happens when a forecaster is ranked in the top 4 in more than one batch.
Round 2 Surveys are open until Sunday, October 13, 23:59 UTC. How many batches can you complete?
Winners will be notified by email at the email address registered with the username on predict.replicationmarkets.com. Prizes must be claimed by October 31, 2019.
October 31 update: forecasters listed in red below have not yet claimed their prize.
| adamlgreen | $1,160 |
| unipedal | $160 |
| Lenkafiala | $160 |
| BradleyJBaker | $120 |
| jacobjacob | $100 |
| Luthor113 | $100 |
| sattuma | $100 |
| artodd21 | $100 |
| mjad88 | $100 |
| educatedguess | $80 |
| rm_user | $80 |
| chrizzel | $80 |
| alanjern | $80 |
| jpheffne | $80 |
| ekimbrough | $80 |
| Matti Heino | $80 |
| AMW | $80 |
| philip_p | $80 |
| Drs3ltsam | $80 |
| bmandl | $80 |
| shimmelb | $80 |
| xoph09 | $80 |
| mws | $80 |
| Nokta | $80 |
| EirikStroemland | $60 |
| felixbunny | $60 |
| Matho | $40 |
| Frantisek | $40 |
| TimSmith4545 | $40 |
| unpredictified | $40 |
| willemsleegers | $40 |
| Reviewer3 | $40 |
| mVranka | $40 |
| paveld | $40 |
| Dima | $40 |
| martin_kosiik | $40 |
| pboenisch | $40 |
| modrak_m | $40 |
| curious | $40 |
| riarm | $40 |
| tereick | $40 |
| davatk | $40 |
| stefanopj | $40 |
| Machery | $20 |
| relihan | $20 |
| mspape | $20 |
| momentumyy | $20 |
| Landa | $20 |
| andrewsmith | $20 |
| adambear91 | $20 |
| axertazzi | $20 |
| Nick | $20 |
| HigherPower | $20 |
| ted | $20 |
| mf483 | $20 |
| paulalab | $20 |
| cgravert | $20 |
| JonS | $20 |
| mbulutay | $20 |
| opowell | $20 |
| DocFoxRox | $20 |
| AchinToBe | $20 |
| Garonmae | $20 |
| sarah.jacobson | $20 |
| zultan | $20 |
| 61t8iHQhTW | $20 |
| catrachohansen | $20 |
| vtevelde | $20 |
| HABK | $20 |
| RobC | $20 |
| Mark Gibson | $20 |
| ChristinaLeuker | $20 |
| 808trent | $20 |
| hills | $20 |
| kushkan | $20 |
| jjxw | $20 |
| eloiserosen | $20 |
| AlexSlavov | $20 |
[…] Round 1 Survey winners have until October 31 to claim their prizes! See the complete list of winners on our blog. […]