How do I start?
Consider viewing one of our intro videos before forecasting:
In this round, we examine a selection of claims from the following journals, in papers published 2009-2018.
- American Journal of Political Science
- Experimental Economics
- Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science
- Journal of Consumer Research
- Journal of Experimental Political Science
- Journal of Experimental Social Psychology
- Journal of Marketing Research
- Journal of Applied Psychology
- Journal of Labor Economics
- Journal of Marketing
- Journal of Marriage and Family
- Journal of Organizational Behavior
- Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
- Law and Human Behavior
- Psychological Science
The Round 1 Prediction Market will be available from Monday, September 16, 12:00 UTC (8 a.m. US EDT) until Sunday, September 29, 22:00 UTC (6 p.m. US EDT).
Trading is open for two weeks, after which the market is frozen until the final result is known. From each round only about 10 markets will resolve and pay out. DARPA will reveal those resolved markets in mid-2020. For more details, read Explanation of Payouts.
To compete for more immediate payouts, make sure to participate in Survey weeks! Round 2 surveys open October 7.
Why markets and surveys? Read our blog post on this topic.