We have heard from our forecasters, and you have questions! 

  • Where’s the prediction market?

Short answer: it will open after the surveys close.

  • Why are we taking surveys?

Short answer: to be eligible for prize money paid out monthly! …And for science.

Read on to learn more…

The RM project is structured in Rounds of Surveys followed by Markets. Each round features about 300 claims published in various behavioral and social science journals during 2009-2018.

During a Survey week, forecasters provide their individual assessments of the replication potential of that round’s claims. These responses establish the baseline for the crowdsourced opinion.

During a round’s Market weeks, forecasters collectively decide on the replication probability of the same claims considered during Survey week. We then compare the market results to the survey results.

One of the ideas we are testing is that market results are more accurate than survey results. For better data, we need forecasters to participate in both Surveys and Markets. So for a more complete answer to those questions:

  • Where’s the prediction market?

It’s coming! As of this writing, we are nearing the end of the Survey week of Round 1. Surveys will close on Sunday, and Markets will open on Monday. 

  • Why are we taking surveys?

Survey responses inform the data we collect from the markets. For our research purposes, we need forecasters to use both methods. As an incentive to complete surveys, we offer $4800 to be distributed among top forecasters of each round of Surveys. 

Specifically during a Survey week,

  • claims are split into 30 batches of 9-10 claims each.
  • each batch will award $80 to the top forecaster, $40 to the second place forecaster, and $20 each to third and fourth place.
  • the more batches you complete, the more money you are eligible to win.