Welcome to Round 1!

In this round, we examine a selection of claims from the following journals, in papers published 2009-2018.

  • American Journal of Political Science
  • Experimental Economics
  • Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science
  • Journal of Consumer Research
  • Journal of Experimental Political Science
  • Journal of Experimental Social Psychology
  • Journal of Marketing Research
  • Journal of Applied Psychology
  • Journal of Labor Economics
  • Journal of Marketing
  • Journal of Marriage and Family
  • Journal of Organizational Behavior
  • Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
  • Law and Human Behavior
  • Psychological Science

Important Information

Make sure to read the Official Rules and understand:

  1. In Round 1, you are assigned a batch of 10 surveys to answer. You must complete all 10 surveys to be eligible for prizes.
  2. To be eligible for more prizes, you may complete more batches of surveys. To request another batch, email support@replicationmarkets.com with subject line “more surveys”.
  3. If you did not complete the intake survey by Thursday, September 5, you are not eligible for this round of surveys. 

You could answer surveys in about ten minutes, but you might want to take your time with them because…


Crystal Ball award for Round 1 Surveys

For this survey round, we expect to payout $4,800 at the end of October. That breaks down to $160 per batch of surveys, as $80 / $40 / $20 / $20 for the Top 4 forecasters for the batch.


Markets will pay more when replications are completed, starting in mid-2020. Prize payouts will use Google Pay. For more details, read Explanation of Payouts.

Round 1 Timeline

The Round 1 Forecasting Survey is available from now, Monday, September 9, 12:00 UTC (8 a.m. US EDT) until Sunday, September 15, 22:00 UTC (6 p.m. US EDT).

You may take the surveys in several sittings provided you use the same browser and keep the cookies Qualtrics uses to track your progress.

The Round 1 Prediction Market will be available from Monday, September 16, 12:00 UTC (8 a.m. US EDT) until Sunday, September 29, 22:00 UTC (6 p.m. US EDT).